NBA · 2:00 AM
SLAL@HOU
Los Angeles Lakers · Houston Rockets
Pick · Pinnacle
LAL ML-118
Edge
+3.2%
By Invitation · Volume I · 2026
Tucson · 32.2226° N · 110.9747° W
Sports
as capital
allocation.
Eleven agents debate. Per-team Elo runs underneath. Closing-line value is captured at T-2. Stakes are sized by Kelly. Most days, we don't bet at all.
Tier S · Today
LAL vs HOU
NBA · ML · 7:00 PM PT
S
Edge
+3.2%
Conf
91%
Stake
1.5u
Cert · TBW-2026-0501-S01
Approved
TIER S1 LIVEENSEMBLE82.4%CLV 7D+1.84%ELO Δ+38BANKROLL100.0uPINNACLEAGREESTEAM2 GAMESDISAGREE1 GAMETIER S1 LIVEENSEMBLE82.4%CLV 7D+1.84%ELO Δ+38BANKROLL100.0uPINNACLEAGREESTEAM2 GAMESDISAGREE1 GAMETIER S1 LIVEENSEMBLE82.4%CLV 7D+1.84%ELO Δ+38BANKROLL100.0uPINNACLEAGREESTEAM2 GAMESDISAGREE1 GAME
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Continue
Act II · The Slate
Today's board,
read like a dashboard.
Three leagues. One cluster. Best book per side, ensemble agreement, Pinnacle disagreement, and steam. Every signal surfaced before you click.
NBA
Basketball
Live
Actionable1
On Board8
ConvictionHigh
MLB
Baseball
Live
Actionable3
On Board12
ConvictionMid
NHL
Hockey
Live
Actionable1
On Board6
ConvictionMid
MLB · 12:40 AM
ATOR@MIN
Toronto Blue Jays · Minnesota Twins
Pick · DraftKings
MIN ML-135
Edge
+1.9%
MLB · 10:40 PM
BPHI@MIA
Philadelphia Phillies · Miami Marlins
Pick · FanDuel
PHI -1.5+142
Edge
+2.4%
NHL · 2:00 AM
BEDM@VAN
Edmonton Oilers · Vancouver Canucks
Pick · Caesars
EDM ML-125
Edge
+1.4%
MLB · 1:35 AM
WCLE@OAK
Cleveland Guardians · Athletics
Pick · BetMGM
Over 8.5-110
Edge
+1.1%
Act III · The Engine
Eleven agents.
One escapement.
Each pick passes through a multi-round debate. Bull and Bear argue first. Risk Manager rates the spread. Three Risk voices then go in circle: aggressive, conservative, neutral. Portfolio Manager approves or kills. The escapement only releases when the consensus is real.
Cal. TBW-26 · Eleven jewels
01
Bull
Long-side conviction
02
Bear
Short-side counter
03
Fundamentals
Per-team Elo
04
Sentiment
Public bias
05
News
Injury & lineup
06
Technical
Line movement
07
Risk Manager
5-tier rating
08
Aggressive
Variance up
09
Conservative
Variance down
10
Neutral
Bayesian midpoint
11
Portfolio
Final approval
Interactive · The Sizer
Quarter-Kelly,
in your hand.
Move bankroll, edge, or odds. Watch the recommended stake settle. Quarter-Kelly is the discipline. Full Kelly maximizes growth and wrecks variance. We give back three-quarters of theoretical optimum to sleep at night.
Recommended
A$131
1.31u · 1.31% of roll
- Full Kelly
- 5.25%
- Quarter Kelly
- 1.31%
- True prob
- 54.9%
- Decimal
- 1.91
Tier S real-money cap: 1.5% of roll. Tier A: 1.0%. Tier B: paper. Below 1% edge: pass.
Act IV · The Ledger
Receipts,
not promises.
Public CLV. Public W/L. Public units. The escapement bar shows every approved pick. Green ticks above the rail are wins, oxblood ticks below are losses. The line is the running balance.
7 Day
6-2-0
record · w-l-p
Units
+5.1u
ROI
6.2%
avg clv · 1.84%
Year to Date
142-96-4
record · w-l-p
Units
+38.4u
ROI
4.1%
avg clv · 1.84%
Discipline
Pass
record · w-l-p
Units
78%
Avg CLV
n/a
78% of days · we sit
Escapement · Last 8 Approved
units · per pick
+1.36u
BOS/NYK
+0.87u
TEX/DET
-0.50u
TOR/FLA
+1.42u
LAD/ARI
-1.00u
GSW/OKC
+0.50u
EDM/DAL
+0.95u
NYY/HOU
+1.50u
DEN/LAC
Act V · The Code
By invitation.
Tier S only goes public at 90%+.
Tier B runs as paper across every market. Tier A and Tier S unlock with verified bankroll. Most days we ship nothing. The patience is the product.
Tenet · 01
Edge or pass
No edge over the closing line, no pick. Most days we sit.
Tenet · 02
Quarter Kelly
Three-quarters of theoretical optimum given back to sleep at night.
Tenet · 03
Public ledger
Every approved pick logs to the public ledger within 24 hours of close.